Monday, October 18, 2004

Election Predictions 2004

(c) Andy Ternay
  • This is what the most fertile part of America will look like after a second term for George W. Bush
  • Well, this is foolishness, but I thought it might be fun to do.

    The latest tracking polls are showing Bush/Cheney up by 2 or 3 points. They do not reflect newly registered voters and do not count folks who only have cell phones and are thus not answering home phones. In addition, some of those companies have biased samples which overcount registered Republicans.

    I think right now the race is tied. It is going to come down to the ground game: GOTV. Whoever turns out the most voters will win. With that said, here are my best guesses.

    Kerry/Edwards will win the presidential election. The popular vote will go about 53% for K/E and 45 to 46% for Bush/Cheney. K/E will have between 280 and 290 electoral votes (270 are needed to win). At this stage there are only three scenarios that will let B/C win the election:

    1. They steal the election. Right now, voter fraud is occurring in multiple states. There are reports of ballot access denials happening in Ohio, Florida and Colorado. A company that does voter registration called “Voters Outreach of America” owned by Nathan Sproul, which receive about $225,000 directly from the Republican National Committee had been accused of shredding the registrations of democrats in Nevada, Washington, Ohio, Pennsylvania and other states (have you seen any coverage of this in the media? Me either. Our media sucks). Registered voters have been purged from the rolls in Florida, Ohio and New Mexico. So, this is a very real possibility. Vote fraud information clearinghouse can be found here.
    2. October surprise: they “catch” Osama Bin Laden, there is a terrorist attack in the United States of America, etc.
    3. The Supreme Court gets to decide the race again.

    Senate: I’m going out on a limb here and saying that the Democrats will control the Senate 51-49. This is very iffy, but the Republicans have multiple meltdowns of candidates going on. For example, in Oklahoma their candidate, a physician, favors the death penalty for doctors who perform abortions and had a documented history of involuntarily sterilizing minority women.

    House: Don’t know.

    One final prediction: we will not know who was elected on November 3rd. Both sides have lawyers from hell waiting to pounce on any irregularity in voting anywhere. Exit polls will be used to track precinct results to prevent Diebold machines used to commit fraud. There will be record numbers of provisional, absentee, early voting, overseas and other irregular ballots. Finally, the media, aside from Fox, will be gun shy to call this one.

    I hope our democracy survives this election. No, I am not actually kidding.

    So, lets see how these match up to the results we get!

    Good Morning Goddess Brigit, my name is Andy and I am an alcoholic. I have been kept sober since Imbolc 2001, by Your grace and Your grace alone. I’d like to take this moment to thank You, my Higher Power for my daily reprieve. Today is a good day to be sober.

    Please be with me today, all through the day and help me to stay sober all day long. Show me Your will for me and grant me the power to carry that out. Thy will, not mine be done. Thank You, Blessed be!